Macro-Sectoral Overview: Restart in Action

1 Jul, 2021
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Macro overview

  • Georgian GDP growth has surpassed the expectations
  • Importantly,  the growth is only partially led by tourism recovery
  • According to the TBC Capital projections, compared to 2019 tourism inflows will recover by 40% in 2021, whereas the same indicator will reach 90% in 2022
  • Georgian GDP is projected to expand by 10.5% in 2021, 6.5% in 2022
  • Inflation will reach 7.4% by the end of 2021, while undershooting the 3% target in the following 2022 year
  • On the back of decreasing inflation and full recovery of tourism inflows, monetary policy rate easing is to be expected
  • Forecast for the USD/GEL by the end of the year is within 3.0-3.3 range

 

Expected impact on business sector

  • International indices: The majority of sectors continue to grow; Aviation and oil & gas industries are behind their pre-crisis positions
  • A mixed range of dynamics is observed in tourist visits in Georgia and selected countries
  • Hotels: considering the improved tourism expectations, the gradual recovery of occupancy and non-cash spending, RevPAR will remain 12% below the pre-pandemic level in 2023 per our updated outlook
  • Development: considering the sale dynamics recovery and rental yield improvement in Tbilisi, sales will surpass their pre-crisis level in 2021
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